And...We're Off!

I have found all the analysis of the timing of the latest cease-fire in Gaza very instructive. I mentioned last week that the new President understands the first rule of modern American politics is knowing who to blame and when for anything negative. Again, the answers are anyone you don't like and always, in that order.

The corollary of this rule is always take credit for anything good. If you see a parade, get out in front and they'll think you are leading it. We see this in action in Israel along with some anticipatory ass-kissing in the press. And the lack of pushback on these claims by the American Farouk tells me something else as well.

Correcting the veritable firehose of misinformation and just plain dumbassery is exhausting. A long and detailed explanation of the history of Greenland, Canada's actual trading situation or the Panama Canal Treaty is tedious and boring. And frankly, after the first four years of trying, everyone is just plain worn out. So, absent that, let me just point out a couple of things about the Middle East.

The first is for the folks who are crediting Trump's pseudo-tough guy swagger when he says things like, "Release the hostages or there will be hell to pay!"

Now, the Gaza Health Ministry, which seems like a pretty formal title for anything resembling a ministry in the Gaza rubble, puts the death toll of the war there at 47,000. One team in the UK though, says it's a lot higher.

But a new report published in the U.K. medical journal The Lancet indicates that far from exaggerating the human suffering in Gaza, the ministry has likely underestimated the true number of the dead by as much as 41 percent.

The statistical analysis conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions concludes that the likely toll in Gaza between October 2023 and June 2024 “from traumatic injury” is as high as 64,260. That estimate, of course, does not include the numbers killed over the ensuing months, nor does it count the unknown number of dead buried under the Gaza rubble—perhaps 10,000 more, according to some estimates.

But, either way, it's an astronomical figure and the Gaza Strip itself barely exists anymore. Rebuilding, if it even occurs, will require monumental efforts and a monumental pile of Shekels. So, my question for those crediting this butch bluster for the deal, what further "hell" do you think these folks fear? What can you do that hasn't been done in spades up to now? Bombs, rockets, drones, the IDF? They have reduced the place, and the population to nothing. As Churchill once said about nuclear overkill, "There's no point in making the rubble bounce."

As far as Netanyahu is concerned, what exactly is the pressure being applied by Trump? Bibi has had no greater supporter than the new President. Arms, money, even moving our embassy to Jerusalem is how this relationship has gone. Our new ambassador, Mike Huckabee is certainly not going to apply any pressure on the Prime Minister. From The Dispatch...

“There are certain words I refuse to use. There is no such thing as a West Bank—It’s Judea and Samaria,” Huckabee said during a 2017 visit to an Israeli neighborhood in the Palestinian territory, using the biblical names for the area. “There’s no such thing as a settlement—They’re communities, they’re neighborhoods, they’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation.” He has also been quoted as saying, “There’s really no such thing as a Palestinian” and describing the identity as a “political tool” to “force land away from Israel.”

As an aside, I have always had some admiration for the ultimate pragmatism of Israelis who welcome the support of folks like Mike, who also believe they are doomed to hell if they don't convert. The universal biting of tongues there must leave the whole country bloody.

And this brings us to a big reason I think Netanyahu waited until after the election to move on this. There will not only be unbridled supportits but any pressure toward an ultimate "two-state solution" is now gone. What has been US policy for several administrations will simply disappear from the diplomatic vocabulary.

Sadly, because after 4 reporting trips there, I have friends on both sides, this will ensure that the status quo, with its attendant violence, will continue.

I'll repeat a comment from a former reporter friend and parliament member, Nitzan Horowitz, when I was there during the Gulf War. "We didn't go through the pogroms and the Holocaust to establish this country so WE could now be the jailers."

Add to this the corruption charges Netanyahu is facing and his splintered right-wing coalition, and he had even more motivation to continue as the "Wartime PM" for as long as necessary, hoping to spur a real Churchilian "rally 'round the flag" attitude in Israel.

And, of course, groups like Hezbollah, the Houthis and anyone supported by Iran, have made his job easier. To be honest, the elimination of many Iranian proxies in the region is a blessing and Israel deserves all credit for decimating them for now. It also, though, made his job of delaying any peace talks easier because these guys can't see beyond their knee-jerk hatred for Israel to the big picture. Restraint for the greater good is not in their playbook.

So, Bibi's stalling tactics have worked since he finally accepted a plan devised by President Gramps months ago, just when it would benefit the new guy. And with that, took a lot of pressure off, at least until his corruption trial resumes.

And it seems my colleagues in the press are providing the background music for this self-aggrandizement. I don't doubt that the new President's envoy to the peace talks was earnest and helpful, and even the outgoing Secretary of State said as much. But as we have learned from the first go around, all that cooperation will be forgotten as this deal is portrayed as just another notch on the new guy's gun.

Harry Truman once said, “It is amazing what you can accomplish if you do not care who gets the credit.”

Well, to quote the great American political observer, Eddie Murphy, "Forget that shit." Because my friends in the press insist on asking this question endlessly, as though it really matters.

Well, let me amend that. It does matter to the folks at Fox, who have been virtually dancing on Gramps' grave while he is still around. Snide has become a language all its own there and the victory laps seem endless. As the N.Y. Times said today, Fox prepares to cover an administration filled with its employees.

And so we continue with a delayed Act II in a play we all know. The opposition for the new President will no doubt be muted, at least for now, since it did no good before. Reporters will persist in the pretense of even-handedness. They must not forget though, a cardinal rule. If one guy says it's raining, and another says it's not; your job is not to just quote them both. It is to look out of the damned window and see if it's raining!

Meanwhile, the nation of Israel will still live in a very dangerous neighborhood. The Palestinian people will still live in a decimated vassal state on the West Bank. And the hate and violence will continue.

I am reminded of a quote from the wonderful writer Robert Ruark that gave his African book Something of Value its title.

“When we take away from a man his traditional way of life, his customs, his religion, we had better make certain to replace it with
SOMETHING OF VALUE.”