Don't Argue! I Know What I Know!

I have found myself wondering lately why we are so quick to believe nonsense? And in many cases, we continue to believe it even after being shown the nonsense is just that. Now, I think we all understand what is called confirmation bias. In other words, when you have a preconceived belief, you process information that confirms what you already believe, and reject that which doesn't.

Or, you might just be dumb. Which brings me to an old colleague from college. When I was a drama student at the University of Houston back when dinosaurs roamed the earth, I did some shows with Dennis Quaid, whom I guarantee you would have trouble recognizing as a baby-faced college kid.

As you can see, I, on the other hand, haven't changed a bit. Dennis was a pretty happy-go-lucky guy, who, like all of us, enjoyed girls, parties, underage drinking and generally not taking life too seriously. And frankly, he could be pretty funny. After a rehearsal for that play in the photo, he, another actor and I were walking my girlfriend, also in the play, across campus to her dorm. There is a big fountain, or was then, in the center of the UH campus and Dennis was walking along the edge, when he fell in. It was December and when he emerged dripping wet, he did his best John Wayne voice and said, "Well, it's a mighty cold night for crossin' the Rio Grande." And that's the Dennis I remember.

He had a bit of a leg up in Hollywood since big brother Randy had been picked out of a UH classroom by director Peter Bogdanovich for a feature part in the landmark film, "The Last Picture Show." Randy helped Dennis get started with a couple of parts and he was on his way.

Randy, sadly, has become a bizarre eccentric who thinks he and his wife are being hunted by a group of celebrity assassins he called the "Star Whackers." They now live in a house in Burlington, Vermont...

Now, I find that incredibly sad, and wish only the best for Randy who obviously dealing with some mental issues. And while I don't consider it any sort of mental issue, brother Dennis has gone full MAGA.

In fact, speaking at a Trump Rally this week, he said, “Are we gonna be a nation that stands for the Constitution or for TikTok?”

For an answer I consulted TikTok and found his page...

dennis_quaid_officialDennis quaidFollowMessage69Following57Followers21LikesThanks for your continued love and support

Well, OK, you're welcome, I guess. And, yes, this is a silly diversion from the topic at hand and no one should take their political cues from any actor, George Clooney or Dennis. But I continue to marvel at the transformation of the guy I knew in school. Then again, he would no doubt marvel at my naivete' as well, since I don't have a TikTok page, and have never played Reagan.

But back to my original thesis, as best I can remember. Why are so many of us impervious to actual facts? Why do we simply take someone's word for anything, particularly when shown they are wrong. By wrong, I mean lying. For example, the Trump economy and the state of things right now.

Remember the 2017 inaugural? The "American carnage" speech? One of the few things I agree with George W about is his comment to Michelle Obama that the speech was, "...some weird shit." Proving, by the way, that the "weird" description didn't begin with this election cycle. For example, let's look at the metrics everyone talks about.

In 2016 Barack Obama handed Trump an economy that had recovered from a deep recession and near rampant bank failures and was on the rise. And, to be fair, until he fumbled the pandemic response, he at least didn't screw it up. Well, that and adding a record amount of debt. Some statistics...

2016 inflation rate - 1.6%...2018 inflation rate - 2.44%

2016 mortgage interest rate - 3.65%...2018 mortgage rate - 4.7%

How about jobs?

The stock market?

How about the growth of the economy, the GDP?

Reagan 1981–1988 -3.6%

H. W. Bush 1989–1992 -1.8%

Clinton 1993–2000 -4%

W. Bush 2001–2008-2.4%

Obama 2009–2017-2.3%

Trump 2017–2021-2.3%

Biden 2021–2024-2.9%

Now, the dips in most of these graphs at the 2020 mark, obviously reflect the pandemic. And recovering from that sent inflation and interest rates soaring. But inflation is now 2.4% (lower than 2018) and the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates as we speak. But the current 30-year mortgage is still roughly 7.25%, meaning obviously there is more work to be done there. So, overall, nearly back to normal, eh?

But I know, eggs, right?

And on the other side, it's pretty hard for Harris to escape the immigrant surge in the first two years of the Biden administration. Yes, she was assigned to find the causes in Latin America, but whether she did or not, it didn't stop them coming did it? The answers have basically been, "But Republicans killed the border bill!" Yeah, but only this spring did Biden take actions that have truly stemmed that tidal wave at the border, actions he indeed could have taken earlier.

All of that is Harris' cross to bear, and she has tap danced around a lot of that. But then again, while we expect digressions and truth avoidance from politicians, the out and out lies have been blatant, and frankly, clumsy. Eating pets? Taking over a whole town in Colorado? Depriving Republican voters of hurricane assistance? He might as well have taken out his Sharpie and diverted the storm as he did before.

A recent psychological study published in the journal Plos One, and reported on NBC, reached some interesting conclusions.

“Our brains are overconfident that they can arrive at a reasonable conclusion with very little information,” said Angus Fletcher, a professor of English at Ohio State University, who co-wrote the study.

But when presented with both sides of a topic they had no personal stake in, people in the study did show a willingness to change their opinions. The Professor also observed, though...

“People are more open-minded and willing to change their opinions than we assume,” Fletcher said. However, “this same flexibility doesn’t apply to long-held differences, such as political beliefs.”

So, we may not be as crazy as it seems to the other side, it's just that they are on the other side. And, of course, that side can't be right either. Our leader may be a fairly weird dude, and I think we can agree on that, but he's our weird dude. To be honest, until he exited the race, Democrats were willing to accept President Gramps' all too obvious decline versus Captain Combover. Anything was preferable to him.

So we accept or simply ignore conveniently, the outrageous statements made by our guy because, well, he's ours. These prejudices are baked into the process at this point and are damned near impossible to shake. I can post as many charts as I want, and our opinions on who handles the economy best will not budge. Again, as in the Professor's study, we have enough information to go on and don't need any more to make a decision, thank you very much.

All of that means, a ton of money will be spent, and the airwaves flooded in the next 3 weeks to test that theory.